Species Sensitivity to Hydrologic Whiplash in The Tree-Ring Record of the High Sierra Nevada

The year-to-year variability of precipitation has significant consequences for water management and forest health. “Whiplash” describes an extreme mode this in which hydroclimate switches abruptly between wet dry conditions. In study, a pool total-ring-width indices from five conifer species (Abies magnifica, Juniperus grandis, Pinus ponderosa, jeffreyi, Tsuga mertensiana) the Sierra Nevada is used to develop reconstructions water-year using stepwise linear regression on lagged chronologies, are analyzed their ability track whiplash events. A nonparametric approach introduced statistically classify positive negative events, success matching observed events with evaluated hypergeometric test. Results suggest that can effectively but tracking differs among sites. Although (dry-to-wet) (1921–1989) generally tracked more consistently than stands out strong Tracking shows no clear relationship variance explained by reconstructions, suggesting efforts extend records tree-ring data should consider optimizing reconstruction models signal.